1 week countdown to the Palestinian unilateral move: Violence is on the horizon

Earlier this week, the 66th General Assembly of the United Nations has been opened. In the following week leaders around the world would begin to take stage and give a speech. Some will talk about their own country, some will use the opportunity to incite against others rather than handle talking about themselves (anyone holding their breathes for Iran to mention anything about the protests it still violenty “shuts up”?). But one issue will hover over the entire assembly – The unilateral Palestinian move.

Now, I’ve already shared my views on why the Palestinians have been stalling on any effort for true peace before, and even expanded a bit on some key issues (such as the hoax of the settlement freeze or the farcical unity between the two biggest factions and enemies).

So what is expected to happen? Unless the Quartet manages (doubtfully) to get the Palestinians off their high tree and resume what they’ve been refusing to do with a bag full of excuses for almost two years now – enter negotiations and try to achieve peace – On Tuesday the show will begin. The Palestinians will try to get the Security Council to approve their request to be recognized as a state. This will not happen. It needs to majority of 9 “yes” out of 15 countries, with a declared United States veto on the horizion. But the point is pressure. Mostly on the European countries. Having Qatar and Lebanon as the presidents of this General Assembly and Security Council, accordingly, would help the Palestinians greatly with bureaucracy issues. It wouldn’t be long before the General Assembly and its’ automatic majority (as well as some other countries who are not part of that majority) will accept the Palestinians as a “none member state”.

This has a very declarative value, the kind that makes headlines. But it won’t change anything for real. At least, not towards anything good.

What will happen is very much remains to be seen, but it’s not hard to estimate with some accuracy.

The West Bank is gearing up for this declaration – the streets and squares of Ramallah are orginized to be filled with demonstrators celebrating the declaration. Gaza, on the other hand, while it might celebrate as well (though Hamas declared this week it refuses to accept the unilateral move, seeing as it gives a Palestinian recognition of Israel’s right to exist anywhere in the region), but it is not part of the preparation – another testimony to how farcical this unity between the factions truly is.

The Palestinian Authority have a very clear plan – huge demonstations, in the West Bank and throughout the world following the prayers of Friday, September the 23rd. The plan is to be basked in the spirit of uprising throughout the Arab world and demonstrate against Israel in a none-violent matter. While that plans sounds great on paper, it is simply not feasible. Let’s just look at the demonstrations on May 15th – the Palestinians Nakba day, used today to incite and mourn the very establisment of Israel (rather than its’ original intent – to mourn the tragety the Arab world has inflicted on the Palestinians in its’ war against Israel). While the West Bank was the most relatively calm friction point, it was only in relative. Describing the protests there as anything but violent is ludicious.

By the way, the terror orgnization Hezzbolah has demolished the South Lebanon Army in May 2000, following Israel’s complete evacuation of Lebanon in what has been called “none-violent demonstrations”. It none-violent methods it demantled a peaceful army and took control of a region where it based its’ powers and headquarters for the purpose of war and bloodshed against Israel. It has done so by simply giving the South Lebanon Army a choice – run for your life or start shooting at enourmous amounts of demonstrators surrondering you. The soldiers of South Lebanon Army chose to run and their entire posts fell into the hands of terrorists.

But back to the Palestinian Authority and the West Bank demonstrations –

Though in 1996, The Palestinian Authority has revoked the annihilation of Israel from its’ charter, its’ way of life has been less than accepting towards Israel as a whole and Jewish people in particular (over 1 million of Israel’s 7 million citizens are not Jewish, the incitement is mostly directly only at the Jewish majority). The facts are the Palestinians have builed a society that doesn’t only cherish death and warriors, but one that cherishes the hate for Israel and those who have worked to killed and slaughter as many innocent Israelis as possible. A few evidences to that can be seen at –

  1. In an opinion article he posted on the “New York Times” at May 17th 2011, titled “The long overdue Palestinian state“, Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, described the events that happened after the 1947 UN decision to form two states – a Jewish state and an Arab state, as such: “Shortly thereafter, Zionist forces expelled Palestinian Arabs to ensure a decisive Jewish majority in the future state of Israel, and Arab armies intervened. War and further expulsions ensued”. That is a vicious lie. First of all, the 1947 resolution was accepted by the Jewish community but rejected by the Arab community. It is them who started a war, declaring they want a country over the entire land. It is the Arab countries that attacked Israel on the day it declared independence, and it was not for the wellbeing of the Arabs who became refugees but for the purpose of not allowing Israel to be formed.
  2. Furthermore, during that article, Abbas continues to describe the territory in question as “our homeland”, as well as figurative descriptions of the longing to “return home”. Those descriptions clearly show that A – the Palestinians are more interested in spreading hate, lies and propaganda than actually achieving peace, and B – that they do not teach their kids the truth and their own fault in the current status, but in stead pass down the lies and hate through generations. This is the exact reason why Benjamin Netanyahu demands a recognition of Israel as a Jewish state – it is a sign that the Palestinians are ready to stop teaching their children lies and begin to tell them the truth, or at the very least, to accept that they will have to make concessions in the future.
  3. To this day, the Palestinians are teaching about the fictional “Right of Return” – a right that doesn’t exists, never did and never will again, in any other conflict in the world.  In post world war II, in post Yugoslavia, post Rwanda and in many other conflicts in the past decades, no refugee got that right. Not a single one. Not one of them demands that or expects to get it back – the wish to suddenly fill Israel with so-called refugees (Palestinians are the only refugees throughout the world who are treated by a separate UN agency – UNRWA – and are the only ones whose offspring get refugee status as well. That is an insult in the face of true refugees throughout the world!) is one that lacks logic or foundation in any other conflict.
  4. Evidence to that are the events of May 15th – the Nakba day. Instead of mourning for what happened, the Palestinians orginize marches where kids are holding keys, demanding to go back to their grandparents’ homes. Not accepting where they reside now, for over 60 years, or attempting to make a realistic view of the situation and their fault in getting there, but simply teaching kids, as Abbas himself decribed it, about the “zionist forces who explled us from our homes” – a vicious distortion of truth.
  5. While the moderate Palestinian Authority risiding in the West Bank (seperate from the extreme Hamas in the Gaza Strip) has supposedly abandoned the ways of terror several years ago, it names streets and squares after the names of suicide bombers and those who planned dozens of terror attacks killing hundred of innocent Israeli women, children and men (such as for Dlal Mugrabi, a terrorist responsible for one of the worst terror attacks on Israel that resulted in the death of 37 israelis, 12 among them are children. The square named after her leads to the Palestinian government building).
  6. Last march, when two Palestinian murdered five family members of the Fogel family (including a three months old baby), Israel and the U.S. demanded a clear condemnation by the Palestinian Authority. In all western media, including much of it in Israel, Abbas would talk and condemn the event. But both him and his ministers, when talking inside the Palestinian Authority and to the Palestinian people, have refused to call the ways of terror (in this case including the slaying of a four  months old baby) inhumane or immoral, but simply repeated “unhelpful to the Palestinian cause”. Meaning, the ways of terror are not condemned or forgotten, they are just unhelpful today. Let’s hope they don’t suddenly look appealing tomorrow morning (or next Friday).
Honestly, the Palestinian leadership have understood the mistakes of September 2000. They know that a violent protest and terror will give Israel some legitimacy in the self-defense department. Which is why they believe they can pull it off without having it escalate to violence. But giving all of the above, how can they really expect that someone, even more than one, while still been a miniority, would act in violence? Would attempt terror or to harm soldiers who would act in self-defense and that actions would enrage more demonstrators until the entire event spirals out of control?
This is a not a far-fetched scenario. When Palestinians began their violent war against Israel at the end of September 2000, what has been called The Second Intifada, Israeli Arabs took to the streets to sympathize with the Palestinians. In demonstrations that quickly lost control, police forces tried to control the event. The crowd-control measures applied in the events, while not aiming to hurt anyone, unfortunetaly did. This only enraged Israeli Arabs taking part in the protests and by the end of October 2000, the demonstration became violent and ended with 13 casualties and a growing distance between the Israeli Arab community as a whole and the rest of the Israeli population.
Just last week, we saw how a demonstration that begins as not violent quickly turns violent by some people and the others soon follow. Last week in Cairo, six Israeli personnel were almost lynched from what started as not violent.
At the end of the day – we’re talking about kids. On both sides. One wrong move or ill-chosen action in the heat of the moment by a soldier, one extremist who decided that he chooses violence, and the entire event could erupt in bloodshed. This is not a peace demonstration from the start, this is a barrel filled with explosives ready to explode.
Moreover, the Israeli army would have its’ focus on two  sections – it will not be focused soley on the Palestinian demonstration and trying to contain it in peaceful actions, as it fears the extremists on the Israeli side as well. The fear of another “Price Tag” action or of settlers fearing the coming violence acting out in violence as well, is a very real and troubling scenario. The IDF is not prepared to trust that the Palestinian security forces will be able to stop extreme settlers or contain their own people and is preparing to have to deal with both. This means a divided attention on two fronts that are ready to explode.
I am in nowhere claiming that the Palestinians have no right to demonstrate and express their own views (as is the explicit case under the rule of Hamas in Gaza). I am merely pointing out that parts of this demonstration are not of peaceful nature and that there will be people in those demonstration who will try to use this to escalate and to fight with violence and bloodshed in some ridiculous notion that it will better their situation and current status.
This will not happen. The declartion is only of declartive value. It is not moving them towards a state, on the contrary. Israel’s unilateral actions in response to Palestinians breach of the Oslo Accords could destory what they have achieved so far, as well as if US Congress makes good on his threat to stop funding it.
In case the infrastructure survives, it will have some power to turn to the Hague and take actions against Israel – but the Palestinians have not been peaceful as well. The rockets fired against Israel’s population have not stopped. The West Bank might not care what happens to the leadership in Gaza, but it should care as to the fact that it is basically declaring openly that the conflict between it and Israel is officialy an international conflict (as of now, the Palestinians have tried to argue that Israel’s claim of using international law in matter of international conflict are wrong because this is not an international conflict. This would in fact make their argument completely void of content).
As I’ve said before, this is not done in order to achieve peace, nor can the Palestinians actions really suggest they are interested in it. They have worked tireless to bring forth this unilateral move, much harder than they have worked towards ending the incitement, hate and lies or towards a peace agreement with Israel. Whatever happens at this demonstrations, however violent is may turn and however it (for sure) will be blamed on Israel – all of this could have been avoided with an honest effort. One that include concessions. One that includes acceptance of others and of truth. Sadly, even in 2011, the Palestinians (or at the very least their leadership) are not prepared for that.
Next week, nothing will change. Except for maybe the even greater feeling of disappointment with peace process and the Western world’s attempts. Without taking a good hard look at their own leadership, the Palestinians would use the Arab Spring as an excuse, just like the Nakba, not for what it was orginially intended, but to incite against Israel and promote violence and bloodshed. And peace? peace will become most likely  a joke thoughout by the hillbillies than an actual hope.
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